Update, August 19, 2026: Piper Sandler’s December 2025 note used a community FSD intervention tracker, not a Tesla regulatory filing. “Very close to unsupervised” is an analyst headline. Supervised FSD stayed Supervised. Tesery’s later files on Berlin miles and NHTSA data fights are separate.
On December 9, 2025 Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter, in a note titled along the lines of “TSLA is Getting Very Close to Unsupervised FSD,” pointed at the FSD Community Tracker: miles between critical interventions jumping from about 441 to more than 9,200 as drivers moved onto v14.1 in October — the largest step in four years, in that dataset. Investing.com and other recaps carried the Overweight / $500 PT alongside the quote. That is a third-party mileage table plus a sell-side sentence. It is not NHTSA saying FSD is unsupervised, and it is not Tesla deleting the cabin camera.
Key facts
- Who said “very close”: Piper Sandler / Potter, Dec. 9, 2025 — not Tesla IR.
- What number they cited: Community tracker, ~441 → ~9,200 miles between critical interventions around v14.1.
- What Tesla did not file: An unsupervised FSD petition tied to that table.
- What this is not: Robotaxi, a recall closure, or proof every owner now sees 9,200 miles.
A tracker vs a regulator
Community trackers depend on who logs, how they define “critical,” and which software they are on. A 20× jump is a real-looking step in that sample. It is still Supervised miles. Do not flatten it into Tesla’s own safety report, and do not confuse it with Tesery’s later Senate / NHTSA data arguments. Miles between owner-logged interventions ≠ miles without a crash in federal data.
FAQ
Did Tesla confirm the 9,200-mile figure?
The number in the note is the community tracker’s. Tesla did not publish that exact pair in a 10-K that week.
Does “very close to unsupervised” mean it is unsupervised?
No. Close is a prediction. The product name stayed FSD (Supervised).
Is this the same as the in-car FSD stats screen?
No. Tesery’s v14.2 in-car miles-on-FSD screen is a different UI. Piper used an external tracker.
For owners: an analyst note does not let you take your hands off, and it does not change insurance or local law.
Featured photo: Tesla Autopilot/FSD cameras on a Tesla (file photo of the Supervised stack the tracker is measuring, not an unsupervised Robotaxi). Image via Wikimedia Commons.
Related: In-car FSD miles screen in v14.2 · 93,000 supervised miles at Giga Berlin
