Introduction
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) recently experienced a peculiar adjustment in its stock price target from a well-known bear analyst, even as the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer celebrated its most successful quarter to date in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments. This unexpected revision by JPMorgan, which raised its price target from $115 to $150 while maintaining an ‘Underweight’ rating, raises questions about the sustainability of Tesla’s growth trajectory in the coming quarters.
Record Deliveries Amid Skepticism
In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla reported an impressive total of 497,099 vehicle deliveries, surpassing analysts' consensus expectations of 443,000 by approximately 12%. This surge in deliveries has been attributed primarily to the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit on September 30, which incentivized consumers to purchase EVs before the benefits were eliminated. However, despite these record numbers, JPMorgan remains cautious about the company’s ability to maintain this momentum.
Temporary Gains or Sustainable Growth?
JPMorgan's analysts noted that Tesla's recent success was partially fueled by a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as customers rushed to secure vehicles before the tax incentive expired. In their note to investors, the firm emphasized that while Tesla’s Q3 performance was commendable, declaring a return to sustainable growth based on just one strong quarter would be premature. They expressed concerns that the company may not sustain high delivery numbers after Q4, particularly as the benefits of the tax credit have now dissipated.
Overlooking Broader Business Strengths
One notable aspect of JPMorgan's analysis is its narrow focus on Tesla’s vehicle delivery figures while largely overlooking the company's advancements in other key areas such as autonomy, energy storage, and robotics. These sectors are expected to play a critical role in Tesla's future growth. The ongoing development of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and its plans for a Robotaxi fleet are seen as pivotal to the company's long-term success and could significantly influence its market position beyond just vehicle sales.
Future Delivery Projections
As Tesla heads into the fourth quarter, some analysts predict that the company will continue to benefit from vehicle deliveries that still qualify for the expired tax credit under revised IRS rules. Additionally, there is speculation that Tesla may introduce a more affordable model, which could have a substantial impact on delivery numbers depending on its pricing strategy. However, the uncertainty surrounding future quarterly deliveries remains a significant concern.
Current Market Performance
As of 2:35 p.m. Eastern Time, Tesla shares are trading at $422.40. This reflects a complex interplay between investor sentiment, market expectations, and the broader economic landscape affecting the EV sector. Investors are closely monitoring Tesla's performance as it navigates these challenges, particularly in light of the recent price target adjustments by analysts.
Conclusion
The recent price target boost by JPMorgan may appear contradictory, given the firm’s ongoing skepticism about Tesla’s growth potential. As the company continues to innovate and expand its offerings, all eyes will be on its ability to translate recent successes into a sustainable growth trajectory. The coming quarters will be crucial in determining whether Tesla can thrive in a post-tax credit world and solidify its leadership position within the rapidly evolving EV market.
